“Is it safe?” If you live in Mexico, you’ve heard this question countless times from friends and family back home. News stories paint Mexico as a dangerous place, but the reality is much more nuanced. To understand why this perception is so off base, let’s start with a different example – foreclosures in the US from 2008-2010.
During the Great Recession, headlines warned of a nationwide housing collapse. It seemed like every homeowner in America was at risk of foreclosure. “America” had a “foreclosure problem”. But while millions of homes were indeed lost, the vast majority – almost 90% – of foreclosures were concentrated in just 20 U.S. counties in five states. See the heat map shown here.
Places like Las Vegas, Phoenix, and parts of Florida saw foreclosure rates seven times the national average. Meanwhile, most American communities experienced nothing close to that level of crisis. In Austin TX, we did have a real estate market slowdown, and some short-sales, but foreclosures were simply not an issue in our market, or most others in the US. But you wouldn’t know that from watching “the news”.
So, even though, from a macro-economic standpoint, the US had a “foreclosure problem”, the problem was not equally distributed geographically, but was instead concentrated in a very limited number of hotspots.
Now, let’s apply this same concepts of unequal distribution to violent crime in Mexico. While international headlines portray Mexico as uniformly violent, the reality is that about 80% of all violent crime occurs in just 10% of municipalities.
Violent crime in Mexico overwhelmingly affects young men involved in criminal activity. Expats living in well-populated, tourist-friendly areas like Playa del Carmen rarely experience violent crime.
The majority of homicide victims are men, accounting for nearly 89% of total homicides. The median age of these victims is 33 years. Victims are most often young males involved in drug trafficking, gang conflicts, or other illicit activities. And yes, innocent bystanders, including vacationers and expats living abroad, are sometimes caught up in these activities, but they represent an extremely small number statistically.
Living in Playa del Carmen, we have situational awareness and we practice common sense – exactly the same way we do in Austin TX. We don’t go out to 6th Street after midnight in Austin TX, and if we did, we’d be very careful. Our life in Playa del Carmen actually feels safer than Austin TX in some ways. Namely we don’t need a car, so a traffic accident isn’t a concern, and most of the things we do are an easy and safe 20 minute walk from our condo through populated well lit neighborhoods.
So, the next time someone asks, “Is Mexico safe?” share this comparison. Just like the US foreclosure crisis, crime in Mexico is a story of geography. Where something happens matters more than the headlines suggest. And yes, Playa del Carmen is safe. Very safe. The biggest risk? Getting so comfortable with the lifestyle that you never want to leave. Feel free to reach out with any questions.
Living in the United States, and with everything going on in the world, I was curious how safe it is in Mexico for Americans. This article made some good points that weren’t on my radar. Nice blog post!